Season Wins lines have been up for months and Nevada sports books have something of a love/hate attitude towards these bets. They love holding onto the players money for the time it takes to settle the wagers. Those betting in the late spring will have had there money tied up in the neighborhood of eight months by the time they get a result. Whatever the house does with those funds during that stretch of time you can be sure the money doesn’t sit idle. They’re putting it to work while you wait until New Years comes and goes before getting your money back into action.
What the books hate about Season Wins bets is that they’ve fared mediocre to poorly on these for a long time. It’s primarily the more educated bettors that get involved with Season Wins when they first get posted. The casual bettors have no interest in looking that far ahead nor devoting any of their bankroll to such a long-term proposition. If the average fan gets involved with NFL futures they most often opt for Super Bowl or Conf championship bets which is something they can do preseason or at anytime during the regular season.
Betting six months in advance means you’re making some educated assumptions regarding team personnel and their use along with the impact of new players and coaches. What many rely heavily on is schedule analysis and pythagorean discrepancies. Pythagorean basically takes a teams stats and states how many games a team with those numbers should have won. What handicappers take from this is how good or bad a team may have ran that year. For example, in 2013 the NYJets went 8-8. Their estimated Pythagorean Wins were only 5.5 that year so they seemingly ran good. The expectation then is that their initial season wins number may be posted a bit high and that sustaining whatever good fortune that allowed them to exceed those 5.5 theoretical wins would be unlikely. The line on the Jets season wins closed at 8 and they proceeded to go 4-12 last year. The preference is to target teams that over performed the previous season rather than those that under performed and there are a few basic reasons for this that will be discussed in the coming weeks. While the Jets dropped off last year as expected, 2014s most popular preseasons OV bet, the Tampa Bay Bucs (-24.5% actual wins vs pyth wins in 2013) finished the season 2-14.
Schedule analysis primarily consists of examining the quality of a teams opponents for the upcoming campaign. Other factors regarding schedule that can be looked at are the scheduling situations that a team will encounter throughout the season. A good free resource for looking at such details is available from KillerSports.com Killer Sports Season Wins Info
Some surprising inequities in the leagues schedules exist and Killer Sports did a good job of presenting them. For example, the Seattle Seahawks must play four times vs a team that will be coming off their bye week. No other team has that distinction while nine teams never face a team coming off a bye. The Dolphins seem to have it pretty good this season as they rank at or near the top of multiple advantageous categories. Miami never has to face a team who last played on Thurs (a team with 10 days rest) yet plays 3 times vs teams who play their next game on Thurs. They’re the only team in the league that plays three sandwich games (opponent has a div game both before and after playing the Dolphins) and they’re the only team that plays four teams who are on the road for the second or third week in a row. These are just some of the things professional bettors may consider when formulating their season win projections.
The biggest leap from a teams 2014 win total vs their opening 2015 O/U total was on Tampa.
The Bucs won 2 games in 2014 and the line on their Season Wins for 2015 opened 5.5 OV.
The biggest drop from a teams 2014 win total vs their opening 2015 O/U total was on Arizona.
The Cards won 11 games in 2014 and the line on their Season Wins for 2015 opened 8.0 UN.
Both Tampa and Arizona have been bet up since these numbers opened at CGTechnology.
49ers 8.5 wins (OVER -120, UNDER -110)
Bears 7 wins (OVER -115, UNDER -115)
Bengals 8.5 wins (OVER -105, UNDER -125)
Bills 8.5 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Broncos 10 wins (OVER -130 , UNDER +100)
Browns 6 wins (OVER -125 , UNDER -105)
Buccaneers 5.5 wins (OVER -130 , UNDER +100)
Cardinals 8 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Chargers 8.5 wins (OVER -115 , UNDER -115)
Chiefs 8.5 (OVER -105 , UNDER -125)
Colts 9.5 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)
Cowboys 9.5 wins (OVER -115, UNDER -115)
Dolphins 8 wins (OVER +100 , UNDER -130)
Eagles 9 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Falcons 8 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)
Giants 8 wins (OVER +100 , UNDER -130)
Jaguars 5.5 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Jets 6.5 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Lions 8.5 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Packers 10 wins (OVER -145 , UNDER +115)
Panthers 8.5 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Patriots 10.5 wins (OVER -135 , UNDER +105)
Raiders 4.5 wins (OVER -140 , UNDER +110)
Rams 7.5 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Ravens 9 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)
Redskins 6 wins (OVER -115 , UNDER -115)
Saints 9 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Seahawks 11 wins (OVER +100, UNDER -130)
Steelers 8.5 wins (OVER -115, UNDER -115)
Texans 8.5 wins (OVER +100 , UNDER -130)
Titans 5 wins (OVER -130 , UNDER +100)
Vikings 6.5 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)