Trying to assess all the probabilities of advancing for the 68 NCAA Tournament teams is a daunting task for anyone. You need spreadsheets, quality statistics and historical data. You most likely need help. That’s why folks like those at fivethirtyeight.com are out there. To help provide a reference for those problems too big for one brain to process. Their interactive, continuously updating bracket is a pleasure to use and a great quick reference tool. Whether you do brackets, futures or props like who will go further or # of tourney wins, this page will give you a good starting point to work from. Just hold the cursor over any branch on the bracket and you get the current probability of that team reaching that stage.
Using these probabilities I quickly found leads on a few bets. The tool shows Arizona having an
82% chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. Odds I found on that prop were -345 YES/+285 NO at the online book 5Dimes. A line of -345 represents a 77.5% BE point so according to the program, laying that number on Arizona is plus EV offering a 5.5% edge. I passed on that one for now but considering it.
Utah was even better and one I actually did bet. The fivethirtyeight.com program has Utahs odds
of advancing at 62% or approx -164 as a BE price. 5Dimes had them at -105. That’s a pretty big difference and part of that disparity can be attributed to the recent action on the Utes. Utah’s moneyline price has risen to -300 vs Stephen F Austin the last 24 hours.
The suggestion is not to use these odds as the ultimate answer. When dealing with multi-game probabilities it can provide a good cross-check to verify that your assessment of a teams chances to reach various stages is reasonable. There are numerous applications when you consider all the different props available. Westgate has a bunch of these type of props as does William Hill. The chart can assist in locating potentially undervalued and overvalued tournament teams.